Over the past two years, interest by international students from Asia, Latin America, and the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) seeking to study in English in the Big Four Anglophone countries (the United States, Britain, Canada and Australia) and other well-known destinations with English-taught programmes (ETP), such as Italy, Germany and France, is largely stagnant or continues to decline.
At the same time, says a study conducted by Studyportals with the British Council, interest in ETPs in Asia and MENA is growing.
According to the study, interest in studying in Britain by Asian students for a bachelor degree rose 0.3% and for a masters by 0.7%, while among those in MENA countries, interest in going to Britain for a bachelor degree remains unchanged and has declined by 0.3% for prospective masters students.
Latin American students evince significantly less interest in studying in Britain with the figure for prospective bachelor students falling 1.7% and for prospective masters students falling 0.5%.
By contrast, the percentage of Japanese students looking to do their bachelor degree in an ETP who wish to remain in Asia rose by 6.6% and among prospective masters students the percentage rose by 4.9% over the last two years.
“The main idea of this study is to give a sense of alternative study destinations that international students could be considering in the short and, potentially, in the long term,” Karl Baldacchino, a co-author of Asia, Latin America and MENA in global education: Emerging trends as destination and source regions (Emerging Trends) published today, told University World News.
The team studied Asia, Latin America and the MENA region “because they are three very distinct, very different regions in terms of their higher education systems. Asia seems the most developed, at least in terms of trying to meet the demand that they have from their domestic markets, despite the fact that India, Pakistan and Bangladesh are still struggling to keep up with and retain their own domestic students”, said Baldacchino.
“The MENA region is certainly up and coming, with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) emerging as probably two of the most competitive countries – Qatar is another. Latin America, the report makes very clear, still lags behind the other regions,” he noted.
The report is based on Studyportals’ proprietary data, drawn from a database that adds 51 million users every year from more than 220 countries and territories; Chinese students’ interest in studying in ETPs outside China is likely under-represented in Studyportals’ dataset because of the ‘Great Firewall’ that restricts Chinese users of the internet, the report notes as a caveat vis-à-vis its Chinese numbers.
“These visitors generate 60 million sessions and more than 45 million programme page views annually,” write Baldacchino and the report’s principle author, Cara Skikne, head of communications and thought leadership at the Netherlands-based global study platform.
Canada sees sharpest fall
Canada has seen the sharpest decline in interest. The study covers the period when, because of a housing affordability crisis blamed in large measure on the 1 million international students in the country, the government of Canada drastically reduced the number of student visas it was prepared to issue and imposed the requirement that each international student have CA$20,000 (US$14,287) in the bank (in order to cut down on fraudulent claims of being a student). During this period there were also slowdowns in the processing of visas.
All of these factors, as well as diplomatic cooling between Canada and India and Canada and China, the countries whose students make up the lion’s share of international students in Canada, have been well-covered by the international press.
The numbers of prospective bachelor students from Asia and MENA countries were -1.9% and -1.6%, respectively, while the number from Latin America (by far the smallest of the three) rose by 1.2%. At the masters level, Canada lost ground in each region: -4.8% among Asian students, -3.7% among Latin American students and -4.1% among students from the MENA countries.
Though the US has registered declines in five of the six categories of students, the declines do not appear to be what might be expected given worldwide news reports about arrests of international students, the closing of the border to a number of countries, massive cuts to university research budgets and the anti-immigrant rhetoric of the administration of President Donald J Trump.
The US experienced a decline in interest by prospective bachelor students from Asia of -1.2% and of -1.3% of prospective masters students. The figures, respectively, for Latin American students are -0.2 and +0.4. Among MENA students, the figures are -0.2 for prospective bachelor students and -0.4 for prospective masters students.
However, Skikne said: “These figures are for the total time period from July 2023 [when Joe Biden was president and would remain so until 20 January 2025] to June 2025. So that’s quite a long time period. I think when we look at the shorter time period, then you can start to see the effect over 2025 [since Trump returned to office].”
As University World Newsreported on 6 October , referring to the 61% decline in interest in studying for a masters degree in the US that Studyportals had tracked since January, Skikne told University World News: “What makes this moment especially concerning is that the decline is not driven by a global crisis or public health emergency, but by policy choices. This suggests it could become a more entrenched, long-term shift rather than a temporary shock.”
Asian students’ interest in studying in Australia for their bachelor degree has declined by 0.5% and for their masters by more than double that, while among Latin American students there has been no change in interest in studying for their bachelor degree and a decline of -0.2% for their masters.
Germany, France and Italy have the most number of ETPs in Europe. Both German bachelor and masters programmes have seen declines, -0.4% and -0.2%, respectively, among Asian students, while MENA students looking to study for a bachelor degree in Germany have decreased by 0.8% and masters degree interest has grown by 0.1%.
Interest in studying in Germany is down sharply among Latin Americans: -2.3% among prospective bachelor students and -1.4% among prospective masters students. This last number is particularly important since German universities are of interest to the largest percentage, 16.2% (after the decline), of students who are thinking of leaving Latin America to study in ETPs.
Over the two years of the study, interest in French bachelor ETPs by Asians rose by 0.8% and by 1.1 for masters programmes.
Interest for studying in German ETPs by Asian bachelor students declined by 0.4% and by 0.2% among masters students. Interest among MENA students looking to study in ETPs in French rose by 0.2% among prospective bachelor students and by 0.4% among prospective masters students.
Interest in Italian universities by MENA masters students declined by 0.1% but increased by 0.5% among prospective bachelor students. The percentage of Latin American masters students seeking information about studying in ETPS in Italy rose by 0.5% and by prospective bachelor students by a healthy 1.2%.
Interest in remaining in Asia
Interest in remaining in Asia and enrolling in one of the more than 30 Asian universities with ETPs varies greatly by country. The percentage of Japanese students looking to remain in Asia for their bachelor degree has increased by 6.6% and their masters by 4.9%.
The percentage increase by Chinese students is even higher: +32% at the bachelor level and +6.9% at the masters level. Both prospective bachelor and masters Indian students too are showing greater interest in studying in Asia, +3.2% and +15.5% respectively. (The increase in Chinese and Indian students looking to remain in Asia is, at least, partially due to Canada’s new restrictive visa regimen, as students from these two countries made up the bulk of the 1 million international students in Canada in 2023.)
South Korean students and those from Singapore were the two largest groups to show less interest in remaining in their region for their bachelor or masters. Among South Koreans, the decline was 12.4% and 12.2%, while among Singaporean students it was 17% and 15.4%, respectively.
Among smaller nation Studyportals groups in Asia, students from Vietnam and Brunei showed differing interests in remaining in Asia.
The growth in the number of prospective Vietnamese bachelor students who sought information about remaining in Asia was just over 100%, albeit from a small baseline of about 2,290; prospective masters students’ interest in remaining in Asia declined by 2.4%. For Brunei the figures flipped, with prospective bachelor students’ interest in Asian ETPs falling by 9.5% and the interest by masters students increasing by more than 175% to 3,781.
Over the past two years, the mix of ETPs in Asia that the students who wish to remain in Asia have investigated has changed. Japan’s 167 bachelor programmes represent a decline of more than 15%, while its 418 bachelor programmes are 3.4% fewer than two years ago.
China too has seen a decline in the number of ETPs: -5.8% at the bachelor level and -11.4% at the masters level. By contrast, both India and Singapore have seen large increases. There are +54.7% new bachelor ETPs and + 53% new masters programmes in India, while the figures for Singapore are +63.2% and +28%.
City variation
One of the most interesting metrics presented in Emerging Trends concerns cities. At the bachelor level, universities in the Chinese cities of Suzhou, Beijing and Shanghai saw increased interest of 60%, 41% and 22.3%, while at the masters level, the figures are considerably lower: +2.0%, +3.2% and -6.7%, respectively.
Tokyo, Toyama and Kyoto’s universities saw increased interest in their bachelor ETPs of 13.8%, 12.3% and 45.2%, while at the masters level the numbers are between +4.0% and +7.1%.
In South Korea, interest in studying in a bachelor ETP in Anyang-si fell by 25.5%, while it rose by 14.7% for Seoul and 17.4% for Ulsan; the figures for students interested in masters programmes are between -11% and -13.4%.
In Latin America, Rio de Janeiro is the city that is benefiting the most from interest in ETPs: +43.1% at the masters level.
Two of Mexico’s cities have seen drastic declines in interest. Interest in studying in an ETP in Monterrey has declined by 71.2% and by 41.1% for a masters in Azcapotzalco.
According to the report, at the bachelor’s level in the MENA countries, Istanbul, Ankara, and Sisli in Türkiye remain the three most in-demand cities in the region, together attracting over 126,000 page views. However, all three saw sharp declines, with demand towards Sisli plummeting by 55.5%.
The trend is mirrored in the United Arab Emirates, where Dubai saw demand fall by 26.3% and Sharjah by 21.4%, despite Abu Dhabi growing by 28.4%, hinting at a possible realignment of student preferences within the federation.
Interestingly, cities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia (KSA) saw the strongest gains, with Jeddah experiencing a remarkable 560.5% growth, while demand for Dhahran and Riyadh also grew substantially. This spike aligns with KSA’s ambitious Vision 2030 reforms, the growing number of ETPs and regional outreach.
“At the masters level, Istanbul, Ankara, and Sisliagain lead in Türkiye, but with a more dramatic drop in demand for Sisli (-63.1%), reinforcing the downward trend at both levels. By contrast, Abu Dhabi and Dubai in the UAE remain appealing, whilst demand for Dubai is up 22.2% and Abu Dhabi is up 32.8%.
“In KSA, demand for Thuwal, home to King Abdullah University of Science and Technology, fell by -65.8%, a notable shift that may be linked to programme- or visa-related developments,” write Skikne and Baldacchino.
“Elsewhere, Egypt’s Giza and Awsim saw exceptional growth (+203.3% and +25.9%, respectively), while demand for Cairo fell by -11.0%, echoing this emerging pattern of demand shifting from traditional megacities toward specialised locations. In Jordan, Ar Ramtha recorded an impressive +47.6% increase, while demand for Amman fell by -18.4%.”
Academic fields
The granular analysis of disciplines and sub-disciplines points to significant differences among Asian, Latin American and MENA students’ academic interests and what they see as their career trajectories.
Among students in Asia, interest in ETPs in business and management (B&M) grew strongly over the past two years: 6.4% at the bachelor level and 1.6% at the masters level; within this programme area, prospective bachelor students have driven increases of 10.3% and 10.6% in business administration and management studies, while international business has grown by the significantly smaller figure of 2.6%.
Interest in B&M by Latin American bachelor students has, by contrast, declined by 1.8% and by 3.6% among prospective masters students. The subfields of business administration and management studies have, nevertheless, grown by 3.1% and 5.4%, respectively, among prospective bachelor students – but have declined by over 10% among prospective masters students.
Bachelor students from the MENA countries are 1.2% more interested in B&M than two years ago, while masters students are -1.2%. At the bachelor level, interest in business administration grew by 2.5% and management studies by 0.6%; international business declined by 2.3%. At the masters level, interest in management studies declined by 5.2% and in business administration by 1.5%.
Among prospective Asian bachelor students seeking to study in ETPs, computer science and IT (CS&IT) declined by 4.7% and among masters students it grew by 1.3%.
Latin American bachelor students drove a 1.5% decline in interest in CS&IT, while the region’s masters students showed an increased interest of +2.0%. Prospective bachelor students in the MENA viewed 2.3% fewer pages on CS&IT than they did two years ago, while masters students saw 3.9% more pages.
Perceptions of value
Towards the end of our interview, Baldacchino, pointing to the flows away from the Big Four and traditional European destinations, put himself in the position of a prospective international student searching for information.
These students are navigating “quite a turbulent international situation in terms of where they can realistically decide to study abroad.
“The burden of the choices that these students have to make has increased, because they not only have to look at the visa rules, the standard of living and even tuition fees, but they also have to weave in all of the return on investment costs with the potential risks that they might face when they’re studying in, say, the US or the UK”, said Baldacchino.
“Especially given the whole importance of the student experience, and as transnational education becomes more available in regions like the Middle East and North Africa and in Asia, and potentially also in the future in Latin America, you would likely see a gradual shift of students deciding to study closer to home as the relative perception of the value, the safety, [and] the difference in culture and languages becomes narrowed,” Baldacchino noted.
Skikne added: “Previously, you saw that the percentage of market share between the Big Four was quite stable. When one market lost out, they lost out to another Big Four destination, whreas now, that’s not the case as much. Now, there’s a lot more interest going outside of the Big Four, where the destinations they’re compeing with for students have diversified massively.”
Baldacchino, a statistical analyst, was appropriately circumspect when asked whether the rise of ETPs in other regions and, especially, the interest students in those regions are evincing in staying closer to home indicate that the longstanding model of international students flowing to the Big Four and other traditional European countries may be reaching the end of its shelf life.
“It is possible. I wouldn’t say anything is out of the realm of the possible, but it is too hard to say because, at the same time, these regions remain attractive from an academic point of view.
“But, I think that beyond what is academically provided by the study destination, the student experience and the ability to work in the place that you decided to study in once you graduate is becoming more important,” he stated. (Visa changes in the US and Canada make this very difficult now.)
“For those destinations that provide a healthy and positive environment for that experience for an international student, there is more likelihood they’ll have a successful student that will want to contribute to the local economy, to the national economy, to any research if they’re in STEM-related fields, whether the shelf life is there or not,” he concluded.
